Key Takeaways:
- CME Fedwatch puts a Fed hold at 99% for the April 29 FOMC meeting, down from a 6.2% hike chance one month ago.
- Polymarket traders have put $20.9 million into the 2026 rate cuts market, with 40% pricing in zero cuts this year.
- Kalshi shows 84% odds the Fed holds in July, as the March 2026 CPI at 3.3% keeps rate cut expectations limited.
Traders Price Fed Hold at 99% for April FOMC as Polymarket and Kalshi Signal No Cuts Through Summer
The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 99% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep its target rate at 350 to 375 basis points when it meets this week on April 29. The remaining 1% reflects a slim chance of a 25-basis-point hike. The probability of a rate cut sits at zero.
That consensus has held firm for at least a week. One month ago, the picture looked slightly different. The hike probability stood at 6.2%, suggesting some traders were hedging against an upside surprise in economic data. That concern has since faded.
Polymarket‘s June FOMC market tells a similar story. Traders there assign a 93% probability to no change in rates at the June 16 to 17 meeting. A 25-basis-point decrease carries 4.5% odds, while a hike comes in at 1.6%. The market has recorded more than $10.5 million in total trading volume, with the “50+ bps decrease” bracket alone drawing over $2.8 million despite its sub-1% implied probability.
The July outlook on Polymarket reflects a bit more uncertainty, though the dominant view remains unchanged. The “No change” outcome holds an 85% probability for the July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting. A 25-basis-point cut comes in at 10%, a hike at 3.4%, and a larger cut at 2.4%. That market launched March 19, 2026, and has since logged $3.9 million in total volume.
Kalshi‘s parallel July market lands in the same range. Traders there put an 84% probability on the Fed holding rates at the July 29 meeting. A 25-basis-point cut carries 12% odds, and a hike sits at 4%. Total volume on that contract stands at $79,441.
The driver behind the hold consensus is a combination of a March 2026 CPI reading of 3.3% year-over-year and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Those figures have given Fed officials little reason to move in either direction, and traders appear to agree.
The broadest view of 2026 policy comes from Polymarket’s “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” market, which has generated $20.9 million in trading volume since launching in September 2025. As of late April, the leading outcome is zero cuts, priced at 40%. One cut carries 28% odds, and two cuts sit at 16%.
Kalshi’s equivalent market echoes that positioning. Exactly zero cuts leads with a 39.9% probability, followed by one cut at 27.5% and two cuts at 15.8%. Total volume on that market has reached $3.18 million.
Both platforms resolve their annual cut markets using the same framework. Each 25-basis-point reduction counts as one cut. A 50-basis-point move counts as two. Emergency cuts outside of scheduled meetings are included. Kalshi closes its market Dec. 31, 2026, with payouts projected for Jan. 1, 2027.
Traders will next watch the April jobs report and updated CPI data for any signs that the calculus is shifting. Until those numbers arrive, the market’s working assumption is that the Fed stays put.
