Crypto Users Are Now Trading on VP Sara Duterte’s Impeachment Outcome Via Polymarket

Decentralized prediction market Polymarket has launched an active betting contract on the outcome of Vice President Sara Duterte’s upcoming impeachment trial, allowing global cryptocurrency users to wager on whether the Philippine Senate will convict her. The deployment of the localized contract occurs alongside ongoing network-level restrictions, with users on Globe Telecom finding the platform blocked while those on PLDT retain access. (Read our earlier story: Polymarket Access Blocked on a Local Telco in the Philippines)

Key Details

According to platform data on May 25, the market contract titled “Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?” holds a total trading volume of $1,107 since opening on May 21.

• Shares for a “Yes” resolution are currently trading at 32 cents, while “No” shares are priced at 70 cents, indicating that market participants place a 31 to 32 percent probability on a Senate conviction.
• The contract rules dictate that the market will resolve to “Yes” if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Duterte on any articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives by Dec. 31, 2026.

Impeachment Trial Context

The betting pool follows the formal impeachment of Vice President Duterte by the House of Representatives on May 11, where lawmakers voted 257–25 to transmit the case to the upper chamber. The articles of impeachment include four major charges: the alleged misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth based on Anti-Money Laundering Council (AMLC) records, bribery, and grave threats linked to public statements made against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

The Senate formally convened as an impeachment court on May 18 and issued a writ of summons to Duterte, requiring her to submit her official response. The trial proceedings are tentatively scheduled to begin in the Senate plenary on July 6, where a two-thirds majority vote from all sitting senators is required to secure a conviction and remove her from office.

Local Access Restrictions and Regulatory Standing

The introduction of the political betting pool coincides with targeted network restrictions within the Philippines.

• Local users attempting to access the platform via Globe Telecom are redirected to an “Access Restricted” landing page hosted by the Cybercrime Investigation and Coordinating Center (CICC).
• The CICC notice states that the website is unlicensed by Philippine authorities, specifically pointing to the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR). Concurrently, user testing indicates that the platform remains accessible through PLDT connections.

Targeted Marketing and Asset Volume Growth

Prior to the local network restrictions, Polymarket increased its commercial outreach toward domestic audiences. Throughout April, sponsored advertisements for the platform appeared on Meta’s Facebook interface, with specific campaigns tailored toward Chinese-speaking residents inside the Philippines.

The platform operates on the Polygon blockchain using the USDC stablecoin, allowing peer-to-peer share trading on the binary outcomes of cultural, economic, and political events. Under Philippine gambling laws, real-money prediction contracts that rely on chance fall under the regulatory purview of PAGCOR, which has not granted an operating license to any decentralized prediction market platform.

Previous QR Ph and Wallet Clarifications

The emergence of local political contracts follows earlier changes to the platform’s transaction gateways for Philippine users.

• On April 13, BitPinas reported that Polymarket updated its deposit user interface to include a “Use Cash” feature, enabling fiat deposits via the national QR Ph standard with an initial daily transaction cap of $800.00.
• Following the feature’s rollout, domestic mobile wallet providers clarified to BitPinas that no official merchant integrations or direct corporate partnerships exist with Polymarket.
• The fiat-to-crypto payment routing and QR Ph compatibility are handled externally through a third-party wallet infrastructure provider called Fun.xyz, rather than via domestic financial institutions.

This article is published on BitPinas: Crypto Users Are Now Trading on Sara Duterte’s Impeachment Outcome Via Polymarket

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