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A majority of traders on the prediction platform EveryX are betting that no senator allegedly involved in the Philippine flood control controversy will be jailed before 2026 comes.
Majority Bet: No Jail Time
According to data from prediction platform EveryX, only 41% of participants predict that at least one senator allegedly involved in the issue will be jailed in the last two months of the year, leaving the remaining 61% to believe that no member of the upper house will be held liable.
Market trends show that sentiment favoring a âNoâ outcome has remained dominant throughout October, peaking at around 80% on October 22 before stabilizing near 60% by the end of the month. The âYesâ prediction, meanwhile, briefly rose during early October but has consistently trailed.
The âYesâ prediction rise logged from September 30 to October 3 coincided with the events where the government intensified its crackdown on the controversy surrounding the flood control projects in the country, with agencies investigating lawmakers, contractors, and engineers allegedly involved in corruption and money laundering.Â
The prediction market contract, which offers up to 10x leverage and potential returns of up to 68%, remains active for the next 62 days and is set to close on December 31, 2025. As of writing, it has 26 participants.
EveryX is a blockchain-based prediction market where users wager on real-world events using cryptocurrency.
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What Happened? The Philippine Flood Control Issue
The Philippine flood control project scandal is a massive corruption case involving the alleged loss of â±118 billion in government funds meant for flood mitigation projects since 2022.Â
The controversy, which began after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered an investigation in July 2025, exposed âghostâ and substandard projects, contractor collusion, and budget insertions allegedly made by lawmakers and public works officials.
Several senators have been implicated:Â
- Sen. Jinggoy Estrada and Sen. Joel Villanueva were accused by former DPWH District Engineer Henry Alcantara of receiving multimillion-peso kickbacks from flood control projects.
- Sen. Francis âChizâ Escudero admitted to accepting a â±30-million campaign donation from a contractor but denied any conflict of interest.
- Sen. Panfilo Lacson exposed irregular budget insertions and later resigned as Blue Ribbon Committee chair amid criticism over his handling of the probe.
- Sen. JV Ejercito claimed the Senate inquiry had lost focus.
- Sen. Risa Hontiveros denied any involvement after being mentioned in media reports.
The scandal has since led to resignations, asset freezes, and multiple investigations by the Department of Justice (DOJ), Anti-Money Laundering Council, and the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI), making it one of the biggest corruption crises in recent Philippine history.
Possible Jail Time Within the Year?
Recently, the ICI recommended filing plunder and bribery charges against Estrada and Villanueva, resigned lawmaker Elizaldy âZaldyâ Co, and several ex-government officials over the multibillion-peso flood control scandal.Â
âPoliticians and government officials will be investigated and charged by credible evidence. Those found responsible will face the consequences and be held accountable under the rule of law⊠Justice will not be delayed this time; this is our promise to our countrymen.â
Andres Reyes, Chairman, Independent Commission for Infrastructure
The ICI, created in August 2025 following President Marcosâ directive, was established to probe alleged collusion between lawmakers, DPWH officials, and private contractors.
In addition, Ombudsman Jesus Crispin Remulla said the first batch of cases is expected to be filed before the Sandiganbayan by November 25, following findings that lawmakers allegedly received 20% to 30% kickbacks from ghost or overpriced flood control projects.Â
Remulla said the government is set to file multiple cases against individuals and companies linked to the multibillion-peso flood control scandal, including those investigated by the DOJ. He said most fact-finding is complete, with around 18 cases under various stages of investigation, and charges will likely target 14 to 15 public officials and contractors. The Ombudsman added that prosecutors may focus on offenses like bribery and malversation, which are easier to prove than plunder.
âPlunder is overrated⊠Thatâs why we are looking at easier crimes to prove⊠[The personalities on the six cases,] they are indictable in Sandiganbayan, that should give you a clue enough.â
Jesus Crispin Remulla, Ombudsman, Republic of the Philippines
Government officials eligible for indictment before the Sandiganbayan include those with Salary Grade 27 and above; senators and members of the House of Representatives are classified under Salary Grade 31.
On the other hand, in a recent video released by Senator Paolo Benigno âBamâ Aquino IV, he stated that the best Christmas gift for Filipinos would be seeing cases finally filed and perpetrators jailed.
âWala pa ring Christmas spirit mga tao, di ba? Parang walang mood maglagay ng Christmas tree⊠Alam rin naman ng mga tao at the back of their head na may proseso yan pero hindi na dapat âto umabot ng Christmas.â
Paolo Benigno âBamâ Aquino IV, Senator, 20th Congress of the Philippines
Aquino is the principal author of Senate Bill No. 1330, also called the Philippine National Budget Blockchain Act, which aims to modernize budget transparency and accountability by using blockchain technology. The bill had its first public hearing on October 2, a Senate working session on October 23, and will have its second public hearing on November 4, 2025.
This article is published on BitPinas: Pinoys Expect No Senator Be Jailed Over PH Flood Control Controversy Before 2026, Prediction Market Shows
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