Key Takeaways
- Cryptoquant says whales hold 3.03M BTC, the most since Nov. 21, 2025, with buying fastest since February.
- Five new wallets received 1,162 BTC worth $96.77M from Wintermute within 12 hours, Lookonchain reported.
- Cryptoquant sees an early bull phase but flags possible pullbacks toward the 365-day average near $80,000.
Whale Balances Hit an 11-Month High
Holders of at least 1,000 BTC are buying again per a research note by Cryptoquant. To elaborate, bitcoin whale holdings have climbed to 3.03 million BTC, their highest level since Nov. 21, 2025. The figure excludes exchange and mining pool addresses, so it tracks coins held by big investors rather than the inventory of trading venues.
A recent whale holdings chart shows monthly balance growth has climbed to its fastest rate since February, with data showing whales shifting from distribution to accumulation.
The turn has been building for months and Cryptoquant analysts have revealed that whale balances bottomed near 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 but were still well short of the roughly 3.23 million BTC held at the previous bull market peak.
In August, Bitcoin.com News reported that whales had added 43,000 BTC over 60 days, ending a months-long selling spree, with buying resuming once bitcoin fell to about $60,000.
The $97 Million Wintermute Withdrawal
Amidst the aforementioned development, blockchain analytics account Lookonchain spotted five newly created wallets receiving a combined 1,162 BTC, worth about $96.77 million, from Wintermute over a 12-hour window.
The receiving addresses are visible on Arkham, and splitting a purchase across fresh wallets is a common custody practice for large holders, though the buyer’s identity remains unknown. That said, not every big holder is buying because just yesterday, Bitcoin.com News reported that a $377 million bitcoin whale had woken up while another swapped BTC for ether. Still, the cohort-wide numbers point toward net buying.
Big Borrowers and ETFs Join the Bid
Lending data has been another potent signal, with reports showing September USDT borrowing by users posting more than $10 million in BTC as collateral rose 83.30%. Borrowing by retail users under $100,000 fell 17.20% over the same period. Larger players are using leverage to add exposure while smaller borrowers pull back.
U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also turned the corner this year as year-to-date net flows flipped positive at about 2,300 BTC, roughly $1.5 billion, after cumulative outflows of about 83,000 BTC earlier in 2026. The recovery is uneven, however, since bitcoin has been defending its $81.5K ETF cost basis despite rising outflows.
Bitcoin’s Price Action Ahead
Cryptoquant believes bitcoin has entered an early bull market phase but cautioned that “a short-term pullback is still possible.” It identified support near the 365-day moving average, around $80,000. Bitcoin is trading near $83,700 as of press time.
Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju has gone further, saying bitcoin’s bear cycle is over and forecasting 12 to 24 months of bullish or sideways action. Bettors on prediction markets are more cautious, with Kalshi’s market pricing bitcoin at about $83,503 by the end of 2026.
If whale balances keep rising toward the prior 3.23 million BTC peak, it would mark a full reversal of the selling that defined late 2025. If bitcoin instead loses $80,000, the bull case hinges on whether those large holders keep buying the dip.
